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Another Way of Looking At the Gold Price Meltdown By Andy Goldman Until recently prices have been on a tear. After decades of
going nowhere, has had a year of steadily rising prices,
that is until two weeks ago. It appears the hedge fund investors
who bid the price up, have decided to take their profits. Gold
prices plunged and many financial analysts have proclaimed that
the bull market in is over. Is it?
Price charts are one way to look at the situation, however we
need to dig deeper into the fundamentals to see what the
prospects are.
As the hedge fund investors have dumped gold, there is evidence
new hands are coming into the market. As some investors leave,
and new ones replace them, the volatility in prices will
remain high. What we need to ask is are these new investors
speculators or is there some fundamental reason new investors
are coming into the market?
Lets start by looking at the retail investors. One important
component of the price of is the retail investors in India,
China and West Asia. Traditionally these investors have bought
gold in the
form of jewelry. Jewelry demand in these countries
does have an impact on prices. The significant point here
is investors in these countries are now accumulating in
forms other then jewelry. In 2005 the investment demand for gold
in these countries has risen from between 20% and 34%. The
strong demand continues into the first quarter of 2006. During
this same period of time, demand for related Exchange
Traded Funds has risen 23%.
India is the largest buyer of in the world. Indian
investors will soon be able to buy ETFs on Indian
Exchanges. There is also a strong demand for investing in gold
coins in India.
China has not had a strong interest in investing in for
anything but jewelry. That may be about to change. The
government is easing regulations that may encourage more
investment in products.
Interest in investments is also increasing in Thailand.
Demand for investments in that country has been hovering
around 10%-15% until 2005. In the past year investment demand in
Thailand has risen to 35% for gold.
The supply of remains tight. The demand across Asia is
increasing. It is likely we will see supplies tighten even more
which will again begin to drive up prices. The next wave up will
look different. After having seen prices plunge, investors are
likely to take profits much quicker this time around. Prices
will begin to go up again, however there will be significant
pullbacks as investors take profits.
Gold investments will also continue to be fueled by Energy price
increases, increased inflation in the US and world tensions.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that growth in the
inflation rate could be worse than expected. After that
remarkstocks in US markets dropped. This could bring investors
back into gold.
Several financial experts in India are looking for to go
to $770- $800 by the end of 2006 or beginning of 2007. Currently
the price is around $635 an ounce. It is not clear if we are at
the bottom prices yet. Prices will rise, but this ride will not
be for those with weak stomachs. Andrew Goldman is president of Metal Rabbit media services, the
operator of http://www.Exchangetradedfundinvesting.com. He has
written a number of articles on finance and investment over the
last ten years.
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